The Uncertainty Principle of Marketing

The Heisenberg Uncertainty principle of marketing
Paul Herbig

One of the foundations of the theory of Quantum Mechanics in Physics is the Heisenberg Uncertainty principle. You can measure the location of a particle or its velocity (or its energy and time) but not both variables simultaneously. The more precise your measure one, the more imprecise is the measure of the other. In particular, the very act of observing (measuring) the particle disturbs it and provides inaccurate readings to any observation of the other parameter.

Marketing, too, unbelievably but true, has its own form of the Heisenberg Uncertainty principle. It also deals in observation and measurement-but of people not atoms. One widely used and referenced market research technique is observation. Marketers wish to observe consumer behavior and also to understand the mental processes behind their decision making. For example, in grocery stores, marketers wish to observe how people behave, where their eyes go, what catches and keeps their attention, how they react to certain changes—whether it be packaging, size, location, or price of grocery articles. And it is not just grocery stores, human behavior in general, especially consumer behavior, has always fascinated marketers. The belief is that the more a marketer understands about why a consumer behaves the way he/she does, the decision making process, and especially the purchase decision or indecision, the likelier the marketer will be able to sell the intended product or service to the consumer.

Many large consumer products companies have even gone to the extent of setting up within the company itself, small grocery stores in which they observe consumers shopping. They vary conditions and see what consumers do. It all sounds so scientific. The only problem with it is that it fails the marketing uncertainly principle. This version of the Heisenberg Uncertainty principles says you can watch the physical behavior or you can have the consumer define the mental process involved but you can’t do both simultaneously.

Unlike particles or natural phenomenon, humans do not follow rigid scientific law (P=nvt for example or V=IR) and all of human behavior is an art, not a science. Humans are probabilistic animals with only tendencies not laws. One of these tendencies is to act differently when one is being observed then when not. If you believe you are being observed, you will act as if you know you are being observed, which is to say, more than likely differently than you would normally. That is to say, normally you would get a high sugar cereal because the kid in you still loves the morning ritual. However, knowing you are being observed, and knowing that it is not quite the politically correct thing to do (healthy foods please) could lead to your buying a totally different brand from what you regularly would if for no other reason than a worry about who might be observing you and where these observations might end up. If the consumer is asked to detail the mental thought processes in a particular decision, the issue of political correctness is bound to surface. The other error condition one could achieve is to have a subject attempt to present to you what he/she thinks you want to here (either out of politeness or respect) instead of providing an accurate rendition of the consumer’s true beliefs (for example, if it were in a P&G test lab, the subject may choose P&G products due to loyalty to the company the lab belongs to or the suspicion that it is the right thing to do).

Marketers somewhat recognize this aspect of unnatural behavior upon being directly observed. The only other option is to directly observe the consumer without his/her knowledge. The only problem with this option is that it smacks of unethical behavior and could present serious legal issues as well. So most ethical marketers attempt to have subjects sign releases to record behavior and decision making processes. And we are back to square one: observing a consumer acting as if he/she were being observed instead of normally.

Remember, next time you are openly observing people: What you see is not what you get but what the party you are seeing wants you to see, which is not the same thing